Companies are increasingly being forced to reassess sourcing strategies, supplier exposure and operational vulnerabilities as geopolitical instability disrupts global energy commodity trading and undermines long-standing assumptions about market predictability, according to a panel of experts speaking on a webinar organised by WPC Energy and the Resilience World Nexus Summit, with official media partner Petroleum Economist.
The Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and the current crisis in the Middle East have forced both companies and nation states to adapt the way the operate in the energy economy.
Businesses need to start better mapping their supply chains and identify concentration risks from particular countries or regions, as well as single suppliers for critical components, according to Catherine Cyphus, global risk advisory lead for Marsh Risk.
“The majority of risk tends to sit with the Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers—that's where 80% of the disruption risk actually sits,” she said.
Some businesses are already bringing processing in-region or friend-shoring critical input sources, shortening their supply chains in order to address these risks.
“Longer supply chains means a larger footprint, more nodes and more potential for risk to manifest,” added Cyphus.
Companies that adapt early and invest in long-term preparedness are likely to gain a competitive edge as uncertainty becomes a defining feature of the global economy, according to Cedrick Moriggi, chief resilience officer at global advisory firm GroupResilience.
“The question is what can companies do now to make sure that, whatever the length of the [uncertainty], they still have light at the end of the tunnel? In training new people adequately, cleaning your supply book, optimising your supply chain distribution, you have gained a competitive advantage,” he said.
Energy security focus
The growing focus on preparedness comes as nation states around the world elevate energy security above all other priorities in response to the Middle East crisis.
“The reality is that energy security is now the key priority for countries and companies. Sustainability and affordability are important, but they are probably less critical than having access to secure energy,” says Ivan Marten, chairman of the Orkestra-Basque Institute of Competitiveness.
In the short term, this shift has triggered a scramble for alternative supplies and a surge in coal imports. Coal shipments into Japan, South Korea and the EU rose 27% year on year in April, according to data from shipping association BIMCO.
Over the longer term, however, the disruption is expected to accelerate structural changes in energy policy and investment strategies.
“The reality is for many governments, it's another wake-up call about the need for long-term planning. And I think the route that many of them are going to take is more investment in renewables and more investment in nuclear,” says Chris Hulatt, founder of energy supplier Octopus Group.
South Korea and India have already restarted nuclear plants, while the EU’s recently announced AccelerateEU package includes measures designed to reduce dependence on fossil fuels through electrification incentives and improved transnational grid interconnectivity.
Countries are also seeking to diversify energy supply routes and reduce reliance on the Middle East.
“The Middle East will remain an important supplier going forward, but new geographies are going to become relevant. The Atlantic Basin is going to be more and more important,” said Marten, noting Guyana, Brazil, Venezuela, Africa, the Caspian Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean as potential regions of interest.
Climate threats
Alongside geopolitical instability, climate-related threats are emerging as another major source of risk for the global energy system, according to Abhilash Panda, deputy chief of intergovernmental processes, interagency cooperation and partnerships at the United Nations Office of Disaster Risk Reduction.
“There is an accelerating physical risk to the very assets the global energy system depends on,” he said, noting that pipelines, refineries, transmission networks, subsea cables and hydropower systems are all undergoing physical stress from a changing climate.
Panda argues that emerging economies in particular need new tools to manage the combined pressures of infrastructure stress, energy supply disruption and geopolitical instability.
“We need to stop waiting for the crisis to hit before releasing resources,” he said.
Financial instruments with pre-arranged triggers linked to defined thresholds—such as an oil import bill crossing a certain percentage of GDP, a currency hitting a stress level or a commodity price shock model—could help provide greater certainty and faster responses during future crises.
“Connecting the dots between vulnerability information, pre-structured instruments and decision making capacities is where I think we need to put our attention,” said Panda.
The issues raised in the webinar are expected to feature prominently at the upcoming 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh on 11-15 October 2026, where government officials, energy executives and industry experts will discuss the future of energy security, supply chain resilience and the transition to lower-carbon energy systems.
With geopolitical instability, infrastructure vulnerability and diversification of supply now at the centre of strategic planning, the congress will serve as a key forum for examining how countries and companies can balance security, affordability and sustainability in an increasingly unpredictable global energy landscape.