Related Articles
Report
Forward article link
Share PDF with colleagues

Global oil demand - an inexact science

Should you bet the house - or your company's drilling programme - on long-term forecasts for oil demand?

Forecasting long-term oil demand, never easy, is getting harder. Opec's latest games with the oil price, Trump's election in the US, Brexit, new battery developments: politics and surprises can play havoc with the models. In December, the International Energy Agency (IEA) tweaked its shorter-term forecasts to reflect stronger than expected oil demand in China and Russia. Global oil consumption will have risen in 2016 by 1.4m barrels a day, or 120,000 b/d more than previously thought, and in 2017 demand will rise by 1.3m b/d, or 110,000 b/d more than its earlier projection. Such adjustments are a regular feature of the IEA's market outlook. If the world's leading energy-market forecaster ne

Also in this section
Technology and the oil industry
13 April 2017
Automation, machine learning, artificial intelligence and other new technologies could transform the oil industry
Spikes and troughs
12 April 2017
Only real supply-side intervention has stopped oil-price volatility. But those days are gone, argues Bob McNally's new book
More boom, more bust for oil
12 April 2017
The industry's history suggests that Opec’s latest efforts to stabilise the oil price will not be successful